Current weather?

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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Thu Jun 20, 2019 3:07 pm

Not looking too nice for the backpackers and day hikers over the weekend.
And it's my opinion 8) the GTTS Road probably won't open Saturday if any snow still remains on the road surface.



Bummer, hopefully they'll open the road Sunday if the weather permits.
Get in line early Sunday AM with my Kindle so I can nap or read :)
I really want to get to Logan Pass for some hiking and pics.

pete :wink:



Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
244 PM MDT Thu Jun 20 2019

.DISCUSSION...The cold low pressure system, currently overtaking
north-central Idaho and western Montana, is creating an
increasingly unstable atmosphere. Short-lived and rapidly
developing thunderstorms will continue to bring lightning and
small hail threats through this evening. Snow levels remain low
for this time of the year (5000-6000 feet), and a winter weather
advisory has been issued for the Glacier Region for snow in the
backcountry through Friday afternoon. Anyone venturing into the
mountains can expect cold temperatures with either cold rain or
snow through at least Friday afternoon.

A secondary lobe of concentrated low pressure in the upper levels
of the atmosphere is forecast to round the parent low as it shifts
over Eastern Montana and produce an area of heavier precipitation
across NW Montana Friday afternoon. This may result in additional
snow across the higher terrain and further necessitate an
extension of the ongoing Winter Weather Advisory. But at the very
least another round of persistent cold rain is expected to drift
from NW Montana in the afternoon southward across the rest of
Western Montana by Friday evening.
Temperatures will continue to
be well below normal with most locations in Montana and North
Central Idaho struggling to climb out of the 50s.

Saturday morning may end up starting off with fewer showers than
previously expected, except along the Continental Divide where
persistent light rain is still expected. But cloudy, cold
conditions will give way to another round of instability induced
showers during the afternoon with the chance for lightning and
small hail similar to today. Temperatures will once again be well
below normal, though far NW Montana could and parts of Central
Idaho will likely find their way, albeit briefly, into the 60s.

Sunday was shaping up to be a drier, warmer day in the previous
forecasts. While the warmer certainly still looks to be on track,
models are still indicating quite a bit of residual moisture and
the chances for some afternoon and evening showers seem better
than previously advertised. On Monday the flow pattern begins to
shift from west to southwest in response to deepening low pressure
off the Pacific NW coast. Temperatures will warm to near normal,
but this should be our drier day of the forecast for this next
week. By Tuesday the models are showing a very good convective
pattern shaping up across the Northern Rockies as high pressure
begins to amplify over Texas and low pressure further strengthens
off the west coast. The chance for some strong and possible severe
thunderstorms could be present on Tuesday and Wednesday if this
pattern should hold. Then cooler and perhaps wetter conditions
appear possible by the end of next week.



Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1046 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2019

MTZ002-212000-
/O.CON.KMSO.WW.Y.0045.190620T1800Z-190621T2000Z/
West Glacier Region-
1046 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2019

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM MDT
FRIDAY ABOVE 6000 FEET...

* WHAT...Wet snow expected above 6000 feet. Total snow
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches above 6000 feet and 3 to 6
inches above 7000 feet expected.

* WHERE...West Glacier Region.

* WHEN...Until 2 PM MDT Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Majority of the snow accumulations are
expected tonight and during Friday morning. Plan on cold and
snowy backcountry conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Weather Advisory for snow means periods of snow will
cause impacts to people heading into the backcountry.
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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Fri Jun 21, 2019 5:55 am

No snow yet in the parking lot at Logan Pass. Winter Weather Advisory is still in effect until 2PM today.
Maybe the forecast will be wrong and the road will open tomorrow?
We all live in hope 8)

pete :wink:
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Re: Current weather?

Postby Ear Mountain » Fri Jun 21, 2019 10:45 am

I just spent three days in the Bob on a mountaineering traverse of Wapiti Ridge. Snowed overnight Wednesday night. We hiked out yesterday with periods of snow, rain and sun. More snow than sun for sure. Looking toward the Rocky Mountain Front from my home earlier this morning it looks to be snowing pretty good but the sky seems to be clearing.

Hopefully you'll make the pass and get some good pics. Some friends hiked up there from Jackson Glacier Overlook during the week and it was beautiful!
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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:57 pm

Looks like it could get ugly in the park tomorrow.
Hope the backpackers remembered their rain gear. 8)

pete :wink:

Flash Flood Watch

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Missoula MT
223 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2019

MTZ001>003-101500-
/O.NEW.KMSO.FF.A.0001.190810T2100Z-190811T0400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Kootenai/Cabinet Region-West Glacier Region-
Flathead/Mission Valleys-
223 PM MDT Fri Aug 9 2019

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Missoula has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for a portion of northwest Montana.

* From Saturday afternoon through Saturday evening.

* Areas of concern include: Highway 2 Kalispell to Libby, Mud
Creek in the Gibralter Ridge Burn Area, Sylvan Creek Campground
in Moose Creek Burn, West Fork Burn Area, Going-to- the-Sun Road
in Glacier Park, Howe Ridge Burn Area in Glacier Park, Sprague
Burn Area in Glacier Park, Hot Springs, and Kalispell.

* Strong thunderstorms will bring very heavy rain, that will have
the potential to create rock and mudslides along steep terrain,
as well as recent burn scars and flooding in urban areas.
Rainfall rates of one half inch or more in thirty minutes are
expected with stronger storms.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

&&
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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Sun Sep 08, 2019 6:08 pm

The next two days aren't looking too good for park visitors, especially the backpackers.
Be very careful driving the GTTS road after dark and in the early AM.
Hard rain washes rocks down on to the road, especially the higher sections--Between the East and West tunnels.
The road crew doesn't usually get going until after 0700



Hydrologic Outlook

Hydrologic Outlook
MTC029-047-091800-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Missoula MT
1221 PM MDT Sun Sep 8 2019

...Excessive rainfall and runoff issues across northwest Montana
through Monday...

Rain will develop this afternoon and become moderate in intensity
for an extended period of time tonight through Monday.

During this time, total rainfall amounts in the Mission valley
may exceed 2 to 3 inches, while rain amounts in the Mission
mountains may exceed 4 inches. For the Flathead valley, rainfall
amounts could total between 1 to 2 inches, with higher amounts
up to 3 inches throughout Glacier National Park (including Going-
to-the-Sun Road).
Thunderstorms could also produce a period of
flash flooding concerns this afternoon.

Excessive runoff may cause creeks to overrun banks, overwhelm
culverts, and flow over roadways. Rock and debris flows over
roads will also be a concern, especially along GTTS Road.

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Re: Current weather?

Postby paul » Mon Sep 09, 2019 8:27 am

This is why I never try to get an advanced permit for September.
We are in the mountains and the mountains are in us. - John Muir
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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Tue Sep 24, 2019 8:00 pm

If I got my apartment move done by Friday I thought I'd drive to the East side for a hike.
Then I checked the forecast.
Are we going from Summer straight into Winter? :(
We'll see.
Stay tuned.


SNOW: Current solutions are indicating 2 to 3 feet of snow Friday
night through Monday for the higher terrain along the Continental
Divide, with a few places potentially getting up to 4 feet.
Logan, Marias, Rogers, MacDonald, and Homestake passes will have a
significant impact from the snow.
Lookout, Lolo, and Lost Trail
passes are anticipated to receive 3 to 8 inches of snow during
this event. Most locations, including valleys, will experience
snow by Sunday morning, with the snow mainly sticking to unpaved
surfaces. The valleys closest to the Divide (Polebridge, Seeley
Lake, Georgetown, and Butte) have the potential to get up to 6
inches of snow, while the lower valleys of Idaho (Orofino to
Riggins) should remain all rain. This amount of snow this early
in the season will also have a major impact to trees, potentially
causing downed trees to block roads and create power outages.

TEMPERATURES: The Northern Rockies should be prepared for near-record
cold temperatures throughout the weekend into early next week.
Maximum temperatures for Sunday and Monday appear to be around 30
degrees below normal for this time of year. Temperatures will
struggle to climb out of the 30 degree range both days across
western Montana, while Idaho will be experiencing temperatures in
the 40s and 50s. At night, low temperatures will plummet to near-record
lows. Valleys across western Montana will be in the teens to 20s
and even in Idaho the lowest valleys could approach the freezing
mark. These cold temperatures will have a profound impact on
agriculture and unprotected outdoor fixtures.
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Re: Current weather?

Postby MarxMN » Tue Sep 24, 2019 10:11 pm

That sure sounds like winter - potentially four feet of snow?

That snow and daytime temperatures below freezing is pretty wicked for the last weekend of September.
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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Wed Sep 25, 2019 8:23 am

This could be quite an event if it comes as predicted.
The BC Rangers are probably out there advising backpackers(if any are out there) to head on back to lower elevations.
I sure wouldn't want to be stuck in the Hole in the Wall with 3-4 feet of snow.




National Weather Service Missoula MT
456 AM MDT Wed Sep 25 2019

...MAJOR WINTER-LIKE PATTERN FOR NORTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...

There is no wavering in the models for a major winter-like storm
system over the Northern Rockies this weekend. If anything, the
models are trending slightly colder, which may increase snow and
cold related impacts in valley locations.

Thursday, an initial Pacific cold front will begin to affect
northwest Montana around midday. There is generous amounts of
moisture available and widespread amounts of 0.1" to 0.3" of rain
are expected. Breezy west to northwest winds 10 to 20 MPH are
expected, with ridgetop winds possibly gusting to 40 MPH.
Snow levels in the afternoon will be above 7000` and no winter
impacts are expected in populated areas.

By Friday, a strong upper level low pressure circulation will
drop out of British Columbia into Washington. Winds along the
Continental Divide will become east and northeast overnight
Thursday. Most of western Montana will see gusty east and
northeast winds beginning Friday afternoon, as the upper level
low strengthens and moves south. This intensification of the low
pressure will in turn pull more cold air across the Divide into
western Montana. Precipitation may slacken off due to the gusty
winds during Friday afternoon in valley areas.

Saturday afternoon into the overnight, the upper level low will
transition across central Idaho into western Montana. It is
expected that a band of heavier precipitation will develop to the
north and east of low pressure. The exact track of the low
pressure will determine where the heaviest precipitation will fall.
Simultaneously, snow levels are expected to crash to most valley
elevations overnight Saturday.

Precipitation will wind down Sunday as the cold system moves into
eastern Montana. However, models are becoming more confident that
the Northern Rockies will stay under the influence of the cold
airmass through at least Wednesday.

Impacts from the multi-day system are as follows:

Snow: Areas along the Continental Divide (especially Glacier
National Park) will see 1 to 3 feet of snow, with the potential
for isolated 4 feet accumulations. Mountain passes along the
Divide such as Logan, Marias Pass, MacDonald, and Homestake will
see significant impacts to travel in low visibility and snow
covered roadways. In addition, other passes such as Lookout,
Lolo, and Lost Trail could see 4 to 10" overnight Saturday. Most
valleys will see some snow by Sunday morning, with any
accumulation mostly on vegetative surfaces. Due to trees still
having leaves, this wet heavy snow could present problems causing
downed tree limbs across roads or bringing down power lines.

Temperatures: With temperatures near record cold coupled with
persistent breezy conditions and very wet conditions, it is
advised to plan accordingly for outdoor activities. In addition,
sensitive vegetation will experience multiple nights with below
freezing temperatures.

Winds: As the cold air gets ushered into the Northern Rockies late
Friday into Saturday, the region should anticipate strong north
to northeasterly winds. These winds could amplify the impact we
see from snow on vegetation, in addition to creating dangerous
conditions on area lakes. Historically, strong northerly winds
have been known to cause damage to boats and marinas on Flathead
Lake. This kind of storm could cause similar impacts.

Rain and snow showers, as well as the very cold airmass, will
linger over the Northern Rockies through at least the middle of
next week. Despite the calendar claiming that it is early October,
afternoon temperatures will struggle to warm above 50 degrees each
day for most locations above 2500 feet. Anticipate hard freezes
for many locations each overnight, threatening above ground
irrigation components and attached garden hoses. There may be some
relief from this historic deep freeze by Thursday next week, when
relatively warm high pressure moves overhead.

&&
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Re: Current weather?

Postby teapot57 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 10:09 am

I went into the backcountry with a couple chatters (MattB and Jen) on Sunday, and it was an amazing sunny bluebird day. Things changed drastically overnight as this system started moving in. We were hit with strong gusty winds, driving rain and sleet starting Sunday night, so we bailed the trail Monday morning as it wasn’t a great day for crossing a pass and we had wet gear. A solo hiker on a different route also decided to turn back and joined us for the hike out. We were headed in the direction of sunny skies, but were getting rained on as the storm clouds chased us eastward.

We crossed paths with a couple backpacking groups that were just heading out, despite warnings posted at the trailhead about the upcoming winter storm. One was a group of CDT’ers bound for the Waterton border. Sure hope they beat the snow. The other was a twosome looking to do 3 nights that included the Dawson Pitamakin Traverse. We warned them of the conditions we faced and the high winds that were predicted to only get worse and explained why we turned back. But they were determined.

I did drive back to Calgary yesterday under sunny skies and the storm clouds were not pushing east but just lingering over the mountains, which was foreboding and interesting to see from a distance. Today’s webcams show partly sunny skies so hopefully the hikers and backpackers have at least one more decent day. I’ll bet it’s pretty windy though.
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Re: Current weather?

Postby paul » Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:51 pm

Tina, I think Tim and Laura are out there now. They had two permits one in the Belly River area and one I think from Francis up to HOL.
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Re: Current weather?

Postby teapot57 » Wed Sep 25, 2019 2:22 pm

Paul, they are out of the backcountry and should be home by now. We met up with them briefly on Sunday before we hit the trail.
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Re: Current weather?

Postby paul » Thu Sep 26, 2019 7:45 am

teapot57 wrote:Paul, they are out of the backcountry and should be home by now. We met up with them briefly on Sunday before we hit the trail.

Well it's good to hear they missed that bad weather.
We are in the mountains and the mountains are in us. - John Muir
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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Thu Sep 26, 2019 8:31 am

Well it's good to hear they missed that bad weather.


Me too.


One was a group of CDT’ers bound for the Waterton border. Sure hope they beat the snow.


And if they don't beat the snow?
They better hustle if they're still out there.

It's already snowing and blowing in the high country along the continental divide...and will only get worse in the next 3-4 days.
Frankly, people who set out on a backpacking trip in the face of what might be a historic snow storm deserve whatever fate comes to them.
As a libertarian, they have every right right to do what they want to do. 8)

pete :wink:

Two different discussions below.
One from the Great Falls office on the East side And one from Missoula office for the West side.



Great Falls discussion for East side
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
548 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...AVIATION SECTION UPDATED...

.SYNOPSIS...

There will be another period of strong gusty westerly winds today,
along with scattered lower elevation rain showers and light mountain
snow. High temperatures will mostly be in the 50s and 60s. A much
colder and wetter weather pattern then moves in beginning Friday.
Precipitation will initially begin as rain for most areas, with the
exception of areas along the Rocky Mountain Front and other higher
terrain in North-central Montana, where snow is expected.
Significant accumulating snow and early season cold is expected for
all elevations this weekend.


.DISCUSSION...

Today through Thursday Night...The subtle ridging that provided
relatively quiet weather for Wednesday is quickly being displaced
southward as a fast moving disturbance and associated cold front
dives southeastward into the region from Canada. Strong gusty
southwest/west winds are already being observed ahead of this
disturbance along the Rocky Mountain Front and adjacent plains.
Models have been consistent with having an area of 50 to 70 kt
westerly 700 mb winds sweeping through the region from northwest to
southeast throughout the day today. These winds aloft over central
and north-central Montana are expected to peak during the late
morning into the early afternoon hours, which gives more confidence
that strong gusty, and potentially damaging westerly surface winds
will reach the surface by mid morning over these areas (much earlier
for areas along the Rocky Mountain Front. Note that once the cold
front passes, surface winds will take on a more northwesterly
direction for the remainder of the day. The High Wind Warnings will
be allowed to run as scheduled for the Rocky Mountain Front and much
of Central and North-central Montana through 6 pm this evening.
These winds will make travel in high profile vehicles difficult,
especially over roadways that run north to south such as Interstate
15 and US highway 89 in north-central Montana. Also, anyone with
recreational plans should be aware that winds may gust up to 80 mph
on mountain ridgetops. Rain showers are expected to develop
throughout the region this morning, with the best chances for
precipitation along the Rocky Mountain Front, over the eastern
portion of central/north-central Montana, and over areas of higher
terrain. Snow levels will likely be above 8000 feet for the bulk for
much of the day, with snow mostly impacting areas above mountain
pass level. With that being said, snow levels do drop to the 6000 to
7000 level later Thursday evening into the pre-dawn hours on Friday
for areas along the Rocky Mountain Front and for the mountains of
Central Montana although the precipitation should be diminishing by
then. Non-the-less, this could result in some scattered light
mountain snowfall in these areas. Winds are forecast to diminish by
evening, while precipitation also becomes more scattered across the
area Thursday night, as stated above. High temperatures for today
will mostly be in the 50s and 60s, with lows for tonight mostly in
the 30s and 40s.

Friday and Friday night...Friday will begin the transition to the
cold and wet weather pattern as the storm system responsible for the
snow and cold this weekend drops out of British Columbia into
Washington and Oregon. Showery and cool conditions are expected for
Friday, with high temperatures forecast to be in the 40s and 50s for
lower elevation areas. Perception will mostly favor areas along the
Rocky Mountain Front and the higher terrain of Central/north-central
Montana. Some light snow is expected above 4500 to 5000 ft along the
Rocky Mountain Front and above 5500 to 6000 ft for the mountains in
central areas. Friday night, precipitation will become more
widespread as westerly flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of the
aforementioned system. At the surface, colder air filters into the
region, which will allow snow levels to drop to the valley floors of
central/north-central Montana by Saturday morning. Northeasterly
surface winds will gradually increase and may gust in the 20 to 30
mph range in these areas as the night progresses. The most
significant snow for Friday night is expected to fall over the Rocky
Mountain Front and then eventually expand to the adjacent plains. As
a result, the Winter Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Winter Storm
Warning for the Northern Rocky Mountain Front, eastern Glacier
County, and all of Pondera and Teton Counties. This warning begins
at 6 pm Friday. The Winter storm watch has been expanded to include
central/north-central areas above 3000 ft, which begins at midnight
on Saturday.

Saturday through next Thursday...Forecast models continue to show
good continuity in bringing a significant early season snow storm
to the forecast area through at least Sunday. The upper level low
pressure center parks itself over the Pacific Northwest and lifts
copious amounts of Pacific moisture into Montana. The resulting
south-southwest flow aloft will generally be diffluent, providing
good lift for the system, but the area of greatest lift will
likely be centered over the Rocky Mountain Front and immediate
adjacent plains. This coincides with where the coldest wedge of
Canadian air will move south with northerly upslope winds gusting
to 40 mph at times. Have therefore upgraded the Winter Storm Watch
to a Winter Storm Warning for the Rocky Mountain Front east
through the eastern portions of Glacier, Pondera, and Teton
Counties, as well as into Toole County. The timing for impactful
snowfall in this area appears to be on track, so am continuing the
valid time of 6 pm Friday through 6 pm Sunday. Exceptional wet
snowfall for this or any time of year will combine with the winds
to potentially cause widespread downed tree branches and power
lines, along with power outages. Have left the remainder of the
existing Watch in effect, but have pushed back the start time to
midnight Friday night, as impactful snow will be slower to develop
there. There is still the potential for significant snowfall with
similarly gusty winds, so will continue to monitor the situation
for an upgrade to a Warning. The forecast also continues to
potentially bring significant snowfall to the mountains of North
Central and Southwest Montana, so have issued Watches for those
areas as well. Temperatures at the lower elevations will likely
warm above freezing both Saturday and Sunday, which will hinder
the potential for significant snow accumulation there. There is
also a good chance that record low temperatures could be broken at
locations across the forecast area. The system will then lift
northeast across Montana Monday through Wednesday, continuing a
lesser chance of precipitation with gradually, though slightly,
warming temperatures. Weak high pressure could keep next Thursday
dry with continued warming. Coulston

&&

.AVIATION...
Updated 545 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2019 (26/12Z TAFs)

Mostly VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours but
periods of MVFR can be expected especially during times of
precipitation. A disturbance embedded within the strong northwest
flow aloft will bring increasing clouds with scattered rain showers
and mountain-top obscuring mountain snow showers. It will also bring
widespread mountain wave and low level wind shear conditions, as
strong and gusty westerly surface winds spread southeast over the
area through 18Z. Winds will decrease and become in the wake of the
disturbance after 21Z, but lower VFR ceilings with lingering light
showers will persist into Thursday night.



Missoula discussion for West side

National Weather Service Missoula MT
302 AM MDT Thu Sep 26 2019

...MAJOR WINTER WEATHER FOR NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS WEEKEND...

.DISCUSSION...A cold front will move through the region
today..starting with rain then becoming more showery by the
afternoon. Also expect breezy westerly winds with gusts to 30 mph
today...couldn`t rule out some gusts over 40 mph at Marias Pass
and also MacDonald Pass.

The historic winter event is still on tap to affect the area by
Friday night lasting into early next week. No major changes this
update except for a few more winter storm watches hoisted
(Bitterroot and Sapphire mountains and also the higher elevations
of western Lemhi County).

- Strong to possibly damaging winds across northwest Montana. We
have been stating wind gusts to 40 mph, but there are
indications that higher wind gusts to 50 mph are feasible in
the canyons along Highway 2 between Marias Pass and Kalispell and
around Flathead Lake.

- Strong winds will make it dangerous for recreation on area
lakes including Flathead Lake.

- 1 to 2 feet of snow across the mountains of the Continental
Divide. Combined with strong gusty winds, very low visibility
would make for difficult driving conditions in the passes.
Blizzard conditions at times are anticipated at Marias Pass and
also MacDonald Pass.

- 1 to 4 inches of snow for lower valleys, 2 to 7 inches for
higher valleys above 4,000 feet are possible in western
Montana. Locations that experience the steadier snowfall could
experience damage to tree branches and powerlines.

- Near record cold temperatures will follow next week which will
likely cause damage to sensitive vegetation and exposed
irrigation systems.

The area will continue to be influenced by general troughing aloft
for the remainder of the week. High temperatures will run about 20
to 25 degrees colder than normal for this time of year.



&&

.AVIATION...Expect an increase in clouds this evening as a cold
front approaches. Rain is expected to begin at KGPI after 26/1200z
with rain expected at KMSO and KBTM between 15Z and 18Z. KSMN
will remain cloudy with a few showers through the day. The big
impact at all terminals will be strong and gusty west to northwest
winds after 26/1800z. Expect west winds 15-20 mph with gusts up
to 30 mph at times through the afternoon.

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Re: Current weather?

Postby Jay w » Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:00 am

I bet the line is short for backcountry permits.

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