Weather change this week

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Weather change this week

Postby poky5mom » Mon Aug 29, 2011 1:48 pm

Sounds like everyone better pack warm clothes that are going to glacier this week!

Per the National Weather Service, Glacier National Park will experience a significant weather change late Wednesday and Thursday this week. Higher elevations like Logan Pass will see a 30 degree change in temperatures, with highs only in the 40's to 50's, and snow possible above 8,000 feet. In the valleys, cold rain is expected. Be prepared and avoid hypothermia - dress in layers, wear hats and gloves, and have rain gear with you. (dr)
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Re: Weather change this week

Postby muddog » Mon Aug 29, 2011 1:58 pm

Sounds like the August Singularity is late this year.
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Re: Weather change this week

Postby J.Peter » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:54 pm

Thanks for sharing this info.
We will be leaving Wisconsin for our 3 week visit to GNP first thing in the morning.
We usually bring this kind of weather with us wherever we go. lol
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Re: Weather change this week

Postby Ear Mountain » Mon Aug 29, 2011 7:57 pm

J.Peter wrote:Thanks for sharing this info.
We will be leaving Wisconsin for our 3 week visit to GNP first thing in the morning.
We usually bring this kind of weather with us wherever we go. lol

Thanks a bunch, J. Peter! :roll:
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Re: Weather change this week

Postby Tiz » Mon Aug 29, 2011 11:36 pm

Sounds like last year when I did the Teton Crest trail:

Cold weather and snow over labor day. Thereafter, the mozzies & crowds are gone and the sun doesn't need to hide anymore .... :mrgreen:

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Re: Weather change this week

Postby Selkie » Wed Aug 31, 2011 10:46 am

muddog wrote:Sounds like the August Singularity is late this year.


*That* is funny!

Last check on NOAA showed GREAT weather to start Labor Day weekend. Cloudless climes and starry skies.
:arrow:
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Re: Weather change this week

Postby toddnick » Wed Aug 31, 2011 10:53 am

This is my kind of forecast!!!! I'd settle for it being mostly right!!!! :D

Friday September 2
Partly cloudy. Highs in the low 60s and lows in the mid 30s. 10% chance of rain.

Saturday September 3
Mainly sunny. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the upper 30s. 0% chance of rain.

Sunday September 4
Sunny. Highs in the low 80s and lows in the low 40s. 0% chance of rain.

Monday September 5
Abundant sunshine. Highs in the upper 70s and lows in the low 40s. 0% chance of rain.

Tuesday September 6
Plenty of sun. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the low 40s. 0% chance of rain.

Wednesday September 7
Plenty of sun. Highs in the low 70s and lows in the mid 40s. 0% chance of rain.

Thursday September 8
Mainly sunny. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 40s. 0% chance of rain.

Friday September 9
Mostly cloudy. Highs in the mid 70s and lows in the low 40s. 10% chance of rain.
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Re: Weather change this week

Postby Selkie » Wed Aug 31, 2011 10:57 am

It's AMAZING!!!! :D

NOAA showed East side about 5-10 degrees cooler than W side.

August has been so long, I can't remember the beginning of it. Like 10 years long.
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Re: Weather change this week

Postby Ear Mountain » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:48 am

Wellie,
Not sure what the "August Singularity" is but the best mountain forecast for anywhere in the Northern Rockies is that the weather will be like this until it is different.

So it was warm and dry for like forever this summer. At my house north of Choteau we've had no precipitation since late June. I mean like none! Until this morning that is when it changed. It has been raining steadily since shortly after 6 am. Now, remembering my "best mountain forecast" it will be like this until it's different. Hard to imagine otherwise.

But like many of you, my family has a backpacking trip planned in Glacier for this weekend and we are all hoping that the NOAA forecast for clear skies and nice temps is on target. But, given my "best mountain forecast" I'll just have to wait and see. You can bet though that we will not change plans until all hope is lost, which doesn't happen around here too often. We always have hope!

I wish all of you planning fall trips to Glacier have a great time!
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Re: Weather change this week

Postby Ear Mountain » Wed Aug 31, 2011 11:51 am

Oh, you might notice that I said "fall" in my previous post.

To me the forecast for snow in the high country and generally cold rain everywhere else the next day or so marks the official transition from summer to fall.

Fall continues until the snow gets too deep to walk through and one has to put on skis or snowshoes to get around. Then it'll be winter!
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Re: Weather change this week

Postby distressbark » Wed Aug 31, 2011 6:12 pm

Image

It will be interesting to see the webcams first thing tomorrow morning!
- anders


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Re: Weather change this week

Postby muddog » Wed Aug 31, 2011 6:24 pm

August Singularity from Aug 5th Daily Interlake:

Old fire dogs have talked about the "August Singularity" for years, firmly believing in a Northern Rockies weather phenomenon with powerful influences on wildfire behavior.
But recent research now has documented this firefighting folklore as an authentic meteorological event. Conducted by Peter T. Soul/ from Appalachian State University in Boone, N.C., and Paul A. Knapp from the University of North Carolina Greensboro, the research was published in the June 2008 issue of the Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology by the American Meteorological Society. "It has become a part of Montana folklore that the first major cold snap arrives in late August, but until now the existence of this event had not been scientifically established," states a press release from Appalachian State University. "The drop in temperatures associated with the August Singularity is triggered by strong midlatitude cyclones that occur across Western Montana and Northern Idaho in mid to late August."

Confirmation of the August Singularity was not surprising to Bob Sandman, a veteran incident commander on wildfires and currently the area manager for the Northwest Land Office of the Montana Department of Natural Resources and Conservation in Kalispell. "I've heard that term used most of my career and I believe it's for real," Sandman said Friday, adding that the event is commonly expected by fire bosses in the Northern Rockies. A singularity is a weather condition that tends to occur near a specific date more frequently than chance would indicate, according to the American Meteorological Society's Glossary of Meteorology.

Soul/ and Knapp studied data from the National Climatic Data Center recorded between 1900-2004. Focusing on daily data from early August to late October, they looked at deviations from normal maximum temperatures that were recorded at eight weather stations in Montana and Idaho. They found that a significant cold spell in the Northern Rockies regularly occurs around Aug. 24-26. A shorter August Singularity also tends to occur around Aug. 13. Temperatures can drop by as much as 40 degrees below average during the event.

We'll be camping in St Mary this weekend, so am looking forward to the cooler temps for a few hikes.
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Re: Weather change this week

Postby Ear Mountain » Wed Aug 31, 2011 7:35 pm

Thanks Muddog,
The August Singularity explains it then. I've definitely noticed the annual cool off and precipitation event and tried to plan my backcountry trips to avoid it. Some times I was successful, sometimes not.
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Re: Weather change this week

Postby Jay w » Wed Aug 31, 2011 7:56 pm

Tiz,

Nice photo.

Jay
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Re: Weather change this week

Postby Tiz » Thu Sep 01, 2011 7:40 am

But the webcam pic doesn't look so good... :(
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