Forecast Link

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Forecast Link

Postby HundsSolo » Fri Jun 08, 2012 11:06 pm

What is the link for weather forecasts for the Many Glacier area?
HundsSolo
 
Posts: 2
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 6:36 pm
Location: Olympia, Washington

Re: Forecast Link

Postby Pocketlint » Fri Jun 08, 2012 11:51 pm

This is the one I use. It comes out of the National Weather Service in Great Falls.
The NWS in Great Falls is the source for most all forecasts in this region.
This particular link below is for Babb which is the closest point to Many Glacier that the
NWSy names.
http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Babb&state=MT&site=TFX&textField1=48.8603&textField2=-113.436&e=0
If you go to that link and scroll down on the right side near the bottom you will see a link "Forecast Discussion" See below for an example.
Clicking on that link gives a somewhat detailed discussion for the region. It's updated twice a day, sometimes more often if there is significant weather in the area.
You can go to the map and scroll over to the Many Glacier and click on it and get what I would call an extrapolated forecast, but it's a "guestimate" at best.
Weather in this area is extremely unpredictable and can change quickly. All these forecasts, regardless of their source are notoriously inaccurate. It's not the Weather Service's fault. Weather in mountainous areas like GNP are simply impossible to forecast with any accuracy. The old saw about "mountains make their own weather" is pretty close to the truth :)

pocketlint :wink:

000
FXUS65 KTFX 090455
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1100 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS AT MID-EVENING WERE ASSOCIATED WITH LIFT FROM A FRONTAL BAND
THAT EXTENDED FROM EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA TO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. MEANWHILE ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS WAS ASSOCIATED
WITH LIFT THAT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA
AROUND MIDNIGHT. BY MIDNIGHT THE FRONTAL BAND SHOULD BE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BUT LIFT WILL LINGER OVER NORTH CENTRAL UNTIL
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SO FOR THE AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD HAVE
LOWERED THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS EXCEPT OVER NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.
AS FOR THUNDERSTORMS THERE WERE STILL A FEW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONTAL BAND AT MID-EVENING. ANY THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
AFTER MIDNIGHT PERIOD SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN BORDER
AREAS OF FERGUS AND BLAINE COUNTIES. HAVE REMOVED THEIR MENTION
ELSEWHERE. DID INCREASE SKY COVER IN THE EAST FOR THE REST OF THIS
EVENING AND LOWERED SKY COVER OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AFTER
MIDNIGHT IN LINE WITH THE DROPPING OF THE MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION. FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT LOOK FINE. BLANK

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 0500Z.
VFR CONDS WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TONIGHT.
MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP CENTRAL MONTANA
WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY ARE LIKELY IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS. HIGHER ELEVATION TERRAIN WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES.
WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA WILL PICK UP AND
BECOME GUSTY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 711 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
FXUS65 KTFX 090111
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
711 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012

UPDATE...
DROPPING THE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHWEST PLAINS
FROM LIKELY TO CHANCE. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN KEEPING MAIN
PRECIPITATION FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHCENTRAL MONTANA. ALSO DROPPED
THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHWEST AS AIRMASS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS. LEFT
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ALONE FOR NOW. BLANK

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 600 PM MDT FRI JUN 8 2012/
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE SCALE PACIFIC SYSTEM THAT WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SOME THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DEVELOP HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST CONVECTION LOCATED
MORE OVER THE EASTERN EDGES OF BLAINE AND FERGUS COUNTIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY OVER WEEKEND AS THE PACIFIC
WEATHER SYSTEM CREATES A CLOSED LOW THAT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEKEND. WHILE THERE STILL ARE SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMINGS AND LOCATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION...MOST OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA AND CENTRAL MONTANA CAN
EXPECT SOME PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THIS TIME FRAME AND HAVE
RAISED THE POPS AND QPFS TO REFLECT THIS. HAVE NOT BROUGHT POPS TO
A WIDESPREAD HIGH CHANCES DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...AND HAVE KEPT
QPF PAINT OVER MOST AREAS DUE TO THE LACK OF CONFIDENCE. GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BY SUNDAY AS THE
LOW SLOWLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TO THE NORTH EAST. THE HIGHEST
CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAIN APPEARS TO OCCUR MAINLY ON SUNDAY AS THE
WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVES OVER THE AREA AND COMBINES WITH
FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW CONDITIONS AS THE SYSTEM SLOWLY
DEPARTS. SUK

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...EXPECT A SEASONABLE WEATHER PATTERN
OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. NO MAJOR STORMS ARE EXPECTED
AT THIS TIME...BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
MOST DAYS...ALONG WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. BOTH THE EC/GFS
CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES IN HOW WARM AND ON THE
TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. AS
A RESULT...POPS ARE NEAR CLIMO FOR MOST DAYS. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT
WEDNESDAY/INTO THURSDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMER DAYS NEXT WEEK...BUT
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY AT/SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL READINGS
ON THOSE DAYS. BRUSDA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF 41 62 42 59 / 80 30 30 70
CTB 39 59 41 58 / 30 20 40 70
HLN 41 61 43 59 / 60 40 40 60
BZN 40 56 37 59 / 90 60 40 40
WEY 38 49 30 50 / 50 50 60 40
DLN 37 55 35 59 / 60 60 40 40
HVR 46 67 44 62 / 80 30 30 70
LWT 42 58 38 56 / 80 40 30 70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS
Pocketlint
 

Re: Forecast Link

Postby HundsSolo » Mon Jun 11, 2012 8:19 pm

THANKS
HundsSolo
 
Posts: 2
Joined: Sat Jul 23, 2011 6:36 pm
Location: Olympia, Washington


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