Current weather?

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PeteE
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Re: Current weather?

Post by PeteE »

The Middle Fork is looking ugly. This was Friday June 2nd

https://youtu.be/im3rsl3xQfU

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Jay w
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Re: Current weather?

Post by Jay w »

Snows a meltin'

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djallen35
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Re: Current weather?

Post by djallen35 »

Looks like the snow is melting nicely! Fingers crossed for a warm June so I can access the high alpine areas when I visit in late July!

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Re: Current weather?

Post by PeteE »

djallen35 wrote:Looks like the snow is melting nicely! Fingers crossed for a warm June so I can access the high alpine areas when I visit in late July!
After my hike to Iceberg Lake Saturday, I believe there is a chance that there is not as much snow as I once thought in the high country.
It's risky business trying to extrapolate snow coverage for one location based on snow depth in another in GNP. That said...
I was surprised by the lack of snow up at Iceberg Lake. Yeah there was plenty of snow, but not nearly as much as 2011.
So for those with permits in late July and early August, do not despair. You may not have as big a problem as some of us originally thought!
Hang in there.

pete :wink:
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Re: Current weather?

Post by djallen35 »

PeteE wrote:
djallen35 wrote:Looks like the snow is melting nicely! Fingers crossed for a warm June so I can access the high alpine areas when I visit in late July!
After my hike to Iceberg Lake Saturday, I believe there is a chance that there is not as much snow as I once thought in the high country.
It's risky business trying to extrapolate snow coverage for one location based on snow depth in another in GNP. That said...
I was surprised by the lack of snow up at Iceberg Lake. Yeah there was plenty of snow, but not nearly as much as 2011.
So for those with permits in late July and early August, do not despair. You may not have as big a problem as some of us originally thought!
Hang in there.

pete :wink:
No sense worrying anyway! I will be there from 7/20-7/28 regardless! My permit is St. Mary to Two medicine via Triple Divide, Pitamakan, and Dawson. Fingers crossed it works out but I'll find some awesome stuff to do either way!

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Re: Current weather?

Post by Supersonic_Blimp »

PeteE wrote:
djallen35 wrote:Looks like the snow is melting nicely! Fingers crossed for a warm June so I can access the high alpine areas when I visit in late July!
After my hike to Iceberg Lake Saturday, I believe there is a chance that there is not as much snow as I once thought in the high country.
It's risky business trying to extrapolate snow coverage for one location based on snow depth in another in GNP. That said...
I was surprised by the lack of snow up at Iceberg Lake. Yeah there was plenty of snow, but not nearly as much as 2011.
So for those with permits in late July and early August, do not despair. You may not have as big a problem as some of us originally thought!
Hang in there.

pete :wink:
Good to hear! I've just been watching the flattop snotel since that at least seems to be some data and the current line has been dropping pretty darn quick, so was hoping that would start to line up with what folks were seeing. Keeping those fingers crossed though!

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Re: Current weather?

Post by djallen35 »

I have been monitoring the Flattop snotel as well, looks like the snow levels are rapidly dropping back towards average numbers. Fingers crossed! I know every permit holder is hoping for a quick melt

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Re: Current weather?

Post by dpratt »

The long term forecast (10-days) is predicting temps in the low to mid-90's and 0% chance of rain. If that comes to fruition and the pattern sticks, we'll likely be in Stage 1 fire restrictions by August.

I know everyone likes blue skies, but a couple of days of solid rain would be welcome. This is the forecast for West Glacier. The Flathead is a 2-3 degrees warmer.

Image

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Re: Current weather?

Post by PeteE »

Here's some weather info for those of you coming out in the next 2 weeks. Be prepared for unseasonably hot weather.
I just got back from two nights tent camping at Johnson's on the East side.
It's hot over there too but not quite as bad as the West side. Clear, to most clear skies make for unrelenting sun everywhere once out of the trees.
Lot's of heat and light reflected back at ya from the rock.

Bring sunscreen and dark glasses.
If you are going to hike in this heat, make certain you either
1)Carry enough water for the entire hike.
2) Bring water treatment gear to make more water if you run out.
Keep in mind that the run off streams are drying up. Water will soon be scarce on some trails.
Ask about water sources if not familiar with the trail.

And...
PLEASE pay close attention to your kids, especially small children.
I saw more than one youngster that I know is misrable today.
There have been "unofficial" reports of people being treated for mild dehydration, including one report of four treated in one day on the Loop trail.
I'm not surprised.

pete :wink:


This is for the West side.


000
FXUS65 KMSO 102008
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
208 PM MDT Mon Jul 10 2017

.DISCUSSION...An approaching disturbance is causing the strong
ridge of high pressure to finally break down. This feature is also
the kicker for convection across Lemhi county into southwest
Montana. The combination of significant instability and more wind
shear will contribute to stronger storms across the
aforementioned region. These storms will be capable of hail, gusty
winds and brief heavy rain.

A few showers will linger throughout the night along the
Continental Divide. Westerly flow will persist over the northern
Rockies through Tuesday keeping the temperatures cooler to near
normal readings.

The heatwave returns by Wednesday, and will last through the
weekend and into early next week. In fact, each day will warm by
5 to 7 degrees or so, with Friday, Saturday, and Sunday topping
out as the hottest days during this particular stretch.
Temperatures will have the potential to reach 100 degrees in valleys
across western Montana and central Idaho on Friday, with an even
greater chance of hitting 100 degrees, or slightly higher
(102-105F), both Saturday and Sunday.

With such strong high pressure locked in place across the western
half of the United States, our forecast models show no
foreseeable break in this hot and dry pattern through at least
July 20th.

&&


East side forecast


000
FXUS65 KTFX 101720
AFDTFX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Great Falls MT
1120 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2017

UPDATED AVIATION

.UPDATE...

Updated forecast for today is out. Freshened temperatures and POPs
per latest observed trends and model guidance. Still expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms today, especially this
afternoon and evening. Some thunderstorms will likely be severe
with damaging wind gusts being the primary threat. This is
especially the case over Central and Southwest Montana per latest
model guidance and SPC convective outlook.
Jaszka

&&

.SYNOPSIS...

Several upper level disturbances will move through the region
through Tuesday. As a result, expect scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop during this time, mainly during the
daylight hours. Some storms could become severe today, especially
along and south of a Craig, to Belt, to Hays line. Damaging wind
gusts and large hail will be the primary threat today, especially
across the aforementioned region. High temperatures will cool a few
degrees through Tuesday, before another significant heat wave
develops by late next week.

&&
"When you're born in this world, you're given a ticket to the freak show.
And when you're born in America, you're given a front row seat."

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Re: Current weather?

Post by scott-atl »

Really glad to see the rain in the Park and especially on the eastside. My nephew was out there last week w his wife. Said the weather was great.

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Re: Current weather?

Post by Ear Mountain »

Just spent 6 days backpacking in the Bob. Brutally hot on 5 of those days. Very little cloud cover. Fortunately nights were cool.

My normal forecast for Glacier Weather will hold true: "The weather will be like this until it's different."
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Re: Current weather?

Post by PeteE »

More heat and now this :(


Red Flag Warning

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Missoula MT
200 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

MTZ105>107-162000-
/O.NEW.KMSO.FW.W.0001.170716T1200Z-170717T0300Z/
Flathead/Glacier Park-West Lolo-Salish and Kootenai Reservation-
200 PM MDT Sat Jul 15 2017

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY...

* Affected area:
Fire Zone 105 (Flathead/Glacier Park).
Fire Zone 106 (West Lolo).
Fire Zone 107 (Salish and Kootenai Reservation).

* Impacts: Hold overs from lightning, and new and existing fires
will likely spread rapidly on Sunday.

* Winds: 15-25 mph, higher on ridges, with and behind the cold
front Sunday morning and continuing through the afternoon.

* Minimum Humidities: 15-25 percent.
"When you're born in this world, you're given a ticket to the freak show.
And when you're born in America, you're given a front row seat."

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Re: Current weather?

Post by PeteE »

I suppose it was inevitable. :(
Fires west of Kalispell have created a lot of smoke in the valley. Visibility is noticeably worse today from yesterday.
Google story in the Interlake

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Re: Current weather?

Post by dpratt »

Yup, very smokey here today. According to the MT DEQ, many fires up in British Columbia are contributing as well. I can barely see the northern Whitefish Range and it is usually very prominent on the horizon here. Even Johnson Ridge in the Salish is a ghost from 93 North.

At least temps in the mid-to-high 90's seemed to have subsided and we're experiencing some nice lows in the 40's. Now a few days of solid rain would be welcome!

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Re: Current weather?

Post by Ear Mountain »

Smoke obscured the mountains west of Choteau on Tuesday as well. Most of that make was from the Park Creek Fire during just north of Lincoln, Montana. A change in wind direction cleared the air in the evening and we had a beautiful sunset. No smoke visible this morning (Wednesday).
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