Current weather?

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Current weather?

Postby Chip » Thu Aug 07, 2014 8:45 am

I know what the weatherman says about the weekend and beyond. But what I would like is a realtime on the ground forecast. Anybody in the park? and is there any haze building from western fires?
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Re: Current weather?

Postby daveparker » Thu Aug 07, 2014 9:25 am

Suppose to be warm and hazy this weekend, here at the house, at 4000 ft, it has been warm, upper 80's the last few days and expected to drop a bit in temp over the weekend, no thunder storms the last few days, haze has burned off by the afternoon and a small amount of wind in the evenings, mid 50's overnight.
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Re: Current weather?

Postby joybird » Fri Aug 08, 2014 10:42 pm

It's been reasonably clear in the mornings here on the east side, but it has definitely been quite hazy by midday and into the afternoons since I've been in the park (August 5). Definitely not good for long range views and photographs, despite the blue skies... At one point on Wednesday you could even smell smoke for a bit up near Piegan Pass.

It's a bit windier tonight. Hopefully that will clear some of the haze out.
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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Wed Nov 26, 2014 4:31 pm

The topic being "Current weather", I'll post here since among my many idiosyncrasies, I'm a weather geek.

Currently the weather here in WF sucks because the snow has turned to a rain/snow mix on top of about 4" of crummy snow.
Good for the ski hill though.
I'm sure there is a lot more in the park and the North Fork. I know there is.

The current forecast from the NWS indicates that between now and Sunday AM the West Glacier region(not here in WF) could get 14-20" of new snow.
And Friday night, Saturday morning the bottom drops out and temps will go to near zero.
Sunday AM is forecast to be clear but around -10F.

Dunno where I may go Sunday, but I'd like to get some solo snowshoeing in.
Solo because I'm feeling a bit feeble since I haven't done much in weeks. 8)

later

pete :wink:
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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Sat Dec 27, 2014 9:18 am

Good Morning All:

We had a White Christmas and now it's looking good for a White New Year too.
The crows are waiting across the street in the aspens for me to feed them. Like most animals, they know what's coming 8)
If anyone is headed this way for skiing, wear your long jammies :)
Might be Tuesday before some good picture taking weather.

later
pete


Winter Storm Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
339 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

...A SIGNIFICANT SNOW-PRODUCING SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WIDESPREAD
IMPACTS TO AREAS IN WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO
BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON...

MTZ002-003-272200-
/O.UPG.KMSO.WS.A.0013.141227T1800Z-141229T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KMSO.WS.W.0021.141227T1800Z-141229T1800Z/
WEST GLACIER REGION-FLATHEAD/MISSION VALLEYS-
339 AM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO
11 AM MST MONDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 AM MST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS
NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* IMPACTS/TIMING: LIGHT SNOW THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY BY THIS AFTERNOON AND LAST THROUGH SUNDAY. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP...WHICH
WILL CAUSE AREAS OF LOW VISIBILITY IN BLOWING SNOW. TRAVEL WILL
BECOME DIFFICULT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF SLICK SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND BLOWING SNOW. IN ADDITION... WIND CHILLS COULD BECOME
DANGEROUSLY LOW BY MONDAY MORNING.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 5 TO 8 INCHES FOR THE VALLEYS...9 TO 12
INCHES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND OVER MARIAS PASS BY SUNDAY
MORNING.

* WINDS: NORTHEAST 20-30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH...ESPECIALLY
OVER MARIAS PASS AND THROUGH BADROCK CANYON INTO THE NORTHERN
FLATHEAD VALLEY.

* WIND CHILLS: 15 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO BY MONDAY MORNING...
ESPECIALLY OVER MARIAS PASS AND THROUGH BADROCK CANYON INTO THE
NORTHERN FLATHEAD VALLEY.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...BAD ROCK CANYON...ESSEX...HIGHWAY
83 BIGFORK TO SWAN LAKE...MARIAS PASS...POLEBRIDGE...FLATHEAD
LAKE...FLATHEAD VALLEY...MISSION VALLEY...POLSON

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. STRONG WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. THIS WILL
MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
Last edited by PeteE on Sat Dec 27, 2014 9:20 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Sun Dec 28, 2014 2:12 pm

Snowed last night. I noticed that one of the Whitefish Hostel's furnace flues was cattywhompus so I called them about it.
This would be a hell of time to lose your furnace. High temps are forecast to be under 15 through New Years Day.
And a cold snap over a major holiday week is a tough time to get a heating contractor....around here anyway.

Hostel is center frame with red metal roof.
Image

Looking North toward the biking/walking path entrance at the corner of Railroad and Luper. My west facing windows on the right. I feed the crows from one of my north facing windows around the corner. A couple are still around in this pic. If the wind gets up as predicted, the snow will be a mess in the morning, never mind the sub zero temp. I just can't wait to get to work /sarc 8)
Image
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Re: Current weather?

Postby Nodust » Sun Dec 28, 2014 4:38 pm

Looks like a mini avalanche took the chimney out.
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Re: Current weather?

Postby Jay w » Mon Dec 29, 2014 9:39 pm

Pretty damn cold in northern MN too. (Pics to follow?)

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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Mon Dec 29, 2014 11:37 pm

Hey Jay:

It didn't get as cold as forecast, but cold enough. The wind was blowing this AM and is still blowing tonight.
These pics are from this morning about 10:30 when I was driving in to Kalispell.
And I did something stupid. But by the time I realized what I had done it was too late.
There's a lesson in it for those who don't live where winter weather is severe. Temps here <10F and wind gusting to 30mph out here in the open near the airport.
I'm sure the Montana folks will get a chuckle at my expense. 8)
As I explain in the pics below.
Here's 44seconds of video. None of the 1 mile section. Even I'm smart enough not to try and video driving that part.
http://youtu.be/PumwkPbH2CA

pete :wink:

I like driving the gravel farm roads around the valley when I can. This road, Trumble Creek road, parallels US 2 from MT 40 to past the airport, exactly 1 mile west of US2. Here I am 200yards north of Conn Rd intersection and all is pretty good. Wind blown snow but it's been plowed. I see the plow trucks are plowing Conn Road so I decide to keep going south and stay out of their way as they plow Conn Rd which runs E-W. Wrong decision.
Image

Looking at Columbia Mt from same spot as above. The wind scours open fields and drifts it down wind.
Image

The road was fine after I blew through the berm the plows had made at Conn Road intersection...for about a 100yards :( The next mile was a white knuckle experience. This one mile section you see here when I reached Hodgson, looking north back towards Conn Rd, had not been plowed at all, or at least not that morning. The part you see here was as good as it got. The wind driven snow wasn't helping much with visibility; the bright sun reflects off the fine snow in the air. Polarlized sun glasses are a must(for me). The drifted parts of the road were high enough that I was "pushing snow" for short distances. It sucked; I was concerned about getting "high centered" since this is a small truck. The weight of my snow blower helped some but it was a struggle to keep the torque at just the right spot. I couldn't stop and lose momentum; too much throttle and I lose control as the back end wants to "push"(posi-traction). The few times I had to down shift to 1st gear was also scary, Risking losing momentum and/or wheels spinning. But bogging down in 2nd wasn't much of an option either. The only good part was it was dead level road. On a hill, I'd have been done. No personal danger here if I had got stuck. However, it would have been a major annoyance. Worst case I call AAA. And I had plenty of clothing and emergency winter supplies in Squeeze. This mistake is pretty much like trying to drive on a flooded road. I got away with it this time....probably due to my superior driving skill. Ya think? 8)
Image
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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:56 am

Me and Squeeze won't be challenging this storm Monday AM 8)

later
pete :wink:

Winter Storm Warning

[size=85]URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
454 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2015

...WIDESPREAD TRAVEL IMPACTS DUE TO LONG DURATION LIGHT SNOW
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHERN ROCKIES...MORE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL AND DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING...

WEST GLACIER REGION-
454 AM MST SUN JAN 4 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY...

A WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON
TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS: LONG DURATION SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW WILL OCCUR BEGINNING THIS EVENING.
TRAVEL WILL BE DANGEROUS DUE TO SLICK SNOW COVERED
ROADS...PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW...AND REDUCED VISIBILITY. TRAVEL
OVER THE MOUNTAINS MAY BE IMPOSSIBLE AT TIMES. BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER MARIAS PASS.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS: 2 TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET.


* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...BAD ROCK CANYON...ESSEX...HIGHWAY
83 BIGFORK TO SWAN LAKE...MARIAS PASS...POLEBRIDGE[/size]
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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Sun Jan 04, 2015 5:48 pm

The point forecast for West Glacier is now for 26"-42" by Tuesday afternoon
And 20" plus for here in the valley, especially around Columbia Falls and Columbia Heights.
Things ought to look really pretty when it's all over :D

pete :wink:


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
304 PM MST SUN JAN 4 2015

...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Widespread snow is impacting the entire Northern
Rockies. Mountain locations will continue to receive significant
snows with difficult travel. HOWEVER VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE
GREATEST IMPACT THIS EVENING as snow and snowfall rates intensify.
An additional 3-5 inches of snow on top of what fell today is
expected. Travel on all roads will be difficult with accidents
already occurring on main roads (I-90 US 93).

THERE ARE MULTIPLE MAJOR IMPACTS ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTHERN
ROCKIES EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FROM THIS SNOW EVENT.
In short, heavy snow creating very difficult travel is the major
impact. Some of these impacts are highlighted below.

* Accumulating snow in the Missoula and Bitterroot valleys
impacting the morning commute. Snow may mix with rain or
freezing rain late in the morning and afternoon hours.

* Heavier snow in the Flathead and Mission valleys overnight through
the entire day with up to a foot of snow possible.

* Heavy snows impacting travel over the passes, which may become
impassable at times.

* Increased snowfall amounts across Lemhi County, especially north
of NORTH FORK TO LOST TRAIL PASS on US-93. This section could
become quite difficult by Monday morning. Confidence is a little
lower for the lower valleys for snowfall amounts as there could
be some downsloping effects despite the plume of moisture moving
overhead.

* POCKETS OF FREEZING RAIN (low to moderate confidence) in the
forecast from Heron to the southern Mission Valley, Missola and
Bitterroot valleys and much of the lower valleys of southwest
Montana late Monday morning and afternoon where snow may
transition to a rain/snow mix or just plain rain.

* BLOWING SNOW for the Ovando to Avon and Macdonald pass areas
Monday morning. Confidence is not as high for this occurring,
but weather models continue to show very strong winds several
hundred feet above these locations.

* Increased SNOW AMOUNTS over the Clearwater Mountains in central
Idaho. There is the possibility that a few high elevation
locations receive over 3 inches of water...and several feet of
snow through Monday night.

* POWER OUTAGES ARE POSSIBLE due to the heavy snowfall. So make
sure generators are working properly and you have enough fuel
reserves just in case this happens.

* Moderate confidence for NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS in the Flathead
Valley and Glacier National park region Monday night and Tuesday
where Another round of moderate to heavy snow combined with
gusty winds are likely. At this point, there is still some
uncertainty how strong the winds could be with the reinforcing
shot of arctic air Tuesday morning, however there will be a lot
of transportable snow to blow around.

&&

.AVIATION...Widespread light to moderate snow will impact all
terminals through Monday afternoon. KGPI and KMSO will be impacted
most with low visibility, ceilings and obscured mountains the
entire time. 4-8 inches of snow are expected through Monday
morning at KMSO with 6-10 inches at KGPI.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT... WINTER STORM WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Butte/Blackfoot Region.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Bitterroot/Sapphire Mountains.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Monday Missoula/Bitterroot Valleys.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Kootenai/Cabinet Region...Lower Clark Fork Region.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Flathead/Mission Valleys.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
Tuesday Potomac/Seeley Lake Region...West Glacier Region.

ID...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM MST
Monday Eastern Lemhi County...Western Lemhi County.

WINTER STORM WARNING from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Tuesday Northern Clearwater Mountains...Southern Clearwater
Mountains.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
Monday Lower Hells Canyon/Salmon River Region...
Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

$$
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Re: Current weather?

Postby MarxMN » Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:24 pm

I don't think I have ever seen a forecast that predicted 26-42 inches of snow or "and additional 1 - 2 feet" of snow. Of course I don't check the forecast for the mountains much.

Have fun.
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Re: Current weather?

Postby Jay w » Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:50 pm

I finally looked at this. Yeah, I did a "drive through snow" thing last year at the Birkie, so I get what you're saying. It was 17" of snow, but there were deeper and not so deep sections. We passed another Subaru that was stuck. We had snow tires on our Surbaru, and our's has a few more inches of clearance than the normal Outback, so that was enough to get us through.

Loved the whole experience. Enjoy the snow. I'm hoping we get something similar soon. I really love snow storms.

Jay
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Re: Current weather?

Postby PeteE » Sun Jan 04, 2015 7:51 pm

MarxMN wrote:I don't think I have ever seen a forecast that predicted 26-42 inches of snow or "and additional 1 - 2 feet" of snow. Of course I don't check the forecast for the mountains much.

Have fun.


Hehehe :) I'll have fun once it clears up and I can get out of town!

I should clarify that remark about 26-42".
That is the sum of the current daily forecast amounts through Tuesday PM
e.g. (3-5) + (8-13) + (5-9) = 16-27

Forecasts like an additional "1-2feet" are common for the mountainous areas because it's very difficult to predict snowfall there.
Slight shifts in wind direction alone can drastically change the snowfall amounts.
So statements like 1-2 feet are really just educated guesses.
The computer weather modeling software simply cannot accurately predict things like snowfall amounts in the mountains.
Still too complex, even for the latest super computers and algorithms.
I like "weather stuff", always have.
I wrote a high school physics report on an article in Scientific American in the mid 60's--
The Nature of Violent Storms
I've been hooked on weather ever since.

I rambled, sorry.

pete :wink:
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Re: Current weather?

Postby daveparker » Sun Jan 04, 2015 11:11 pm

Well crap, I am currently sitting in Liberty Lake, WA and am hoping to get home on Monday before dark, but that sounds like it may become a real challenge after seeing the weather reports!

:shock:
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