Looks like they're done with processing the initial batch and the advanced availability site is back up and working well. Walk-in is not, but trail status and closures are.
Mind blowing how few are left, especially all the way to end of schedule (September). GRN, STO completely gone. FIF might as well be. I take that as a good sign the rangers did well to pack in as much as possible (no dangling sites).
I did a capture prior to the start of most of the processing (3/20), and there were 14,300 site-nights available. As of today, 5,300. So 9,000 site-nights reserved, for 4,000 permits. I'd assume about 1/4 rejected, so 3 nights per successful reservation seems reasonable.
My recollection was more availability (mid-late September always available), so with the additional site availability (up to 80%) and an average number of permits, the result is puzzling.
I'm going to see if I can track no-shows this year.
Since my permit was rejected, I was hoping to scoop up a creative route with hopes of a walk-in adjustment, but I couldn't find compelling route and time combinations. I'll be keeping an eye on availability to see if there are any cancelations. Here are two I was considering:
9/16: PAR, ISA, COB, OLD, UPN, BEA, COA
9/21 MAN, HEL, GLF, KOO, FIF, FLA (walk-in improvement of GLF->MOL/GLH, KOO->STO, FLA->GRN with GRN being the most important).
Availability screen dump
link.