BackCountry Permits 2022

[zozeppelin]

I’m sure you spotted it, but there are some suspicious parts. It looks like sites that should be in winter status are not, and there are a lot of over bookings.

Enjoy your trip!

[zozeppelin]

Persistence paid off- I was able to land an extended northern circle in the end half of September!

It looks like another partial (no FIF?) opener mid August

8/10: ELF
8/11: COS
8/12: STO
8/13: ?
8/14: GRN (2)
8/15: MAN (2)
8/16: ELH (2)
8/17: FIF

[paul]

Congrats on the permit. Lets hope for good weather in September.

[zozeppelin]

Thanks Paul, hopefully as the Ranger said ‘September is the new August’.

Another northern loop just popped up:

09-09-22 GLF
09-10-22 STO
09-11-22 FIF
09-12-22 GRN

[zozeppelin]

And another:
08-23-22 ELH
08-24-22 MOL
08-25-22 KOO
08-26-22 FIF
08-27-22 GRN

[paul]

I've been watching the advanced reservations page and I'm beginning to see a pattern. It looks like each week there are new openings for advanced permits for that week. I think what's happening is they are getting a lot of no shows so as soon as someone doesn't show up to get their permit, the sites on that permit are added back into the pool.

If you look at this week for camps in the Belly river and Mokawannis drainage, there are quite a few camps available. Last week they weren't available.

I think this is no shows rather than cancellations for most part because it's happening just before camps become available. If people were cancelling they would probably do that well in advance.

[zozeppelin]

Hi Paul - agree.

I've been tracking 'no-shows' daily (taking a snapshot at 4:30 MST and at 6 MST, then comparing difference for increase).

Here is today's numbers:

tonight: 15
+1: 8
+2: 6
+3: 4
+4: 1
+5: 1

They are trending upwards (presumably with the increase in open camps after 8/1, and will see more after 8/15). These are campgrounds total, there are several with multiple campsites increasing in availability.

Letter of the law, I don't think you can claim a no-show, as there is no overlap between 'last permit issued' and 'permits not picked up'. I hope this is not the case in reality, and that they'd allow for no shows to be claimed. The challenge is of course you can't just start a hike to ELF at 5 PM, or really anywhere for that matter. I was looking at Grand Tetons, and their walkin policy is day before (can't do same-day), which would eliminate this problem. Realistically I think a noon cutoff for picking up a permit day of is fair to both sides.

As an example, here are the before and after numbers available for tonight.

08-02-22 AKO 1 3
08-02-22 CRA 1 2
08-02-22 FIF 0 1
08-02-22 ELF 0 2
08-02-22 REF 0 1
08-02-22 GUN 0 3
08-02-22 REH 0 3
08-02-22 ISA 1 2
08-02-22 LIN 1 2
08-02-22 LQU 1 3
08-02-22 OLL 1 2
08-02-22 POI 0 2
08-02-22 QUA 0 1
08-02-22 SLI 1 3
08-02-22 UPK 0 2
08-03-22 ATL 0 1
08-03-22 BOU 2 3
08-03-22 BRO 0 1
08-03-22 REH 0 2
08-03-22 LQU 1 2
08-03-22 POI 0 2
08-03-22 QUA 0 2
08-03-22 STO 0 1
08-04-22 AKO 0 1
08-04-22 ATL 1 2
08-04-22 BRO 0 1
08-04-22 ELF 0 1
08-04-22 KOO 0 1
08-04-22 QUA 1 2
08-05-22 REH 1 2
08-05-22 LQU 1 2
08-05-22 MAN 0 1
08-05-22 MOL 0 1
08-06-22 COS 1 2
08-07-22 MAN 2 3

[paul]

I know you probably can't claim a no-show site for the first night. But let's say a no-show has a 3 night permit. The remaining 2 nights should be available for walkins,etc. If the person hasn't show up by 4pm of the first day, they relinquish their right to the rest of the nights for the trip.

This is actually tough to see because people aren't doing the considerate thing and cancelling their permits well in advance so that someone else can use the camp. The system for reservations rewards people putting in multiple applications when they will only use one. There is no penalty for over reserving trips and not cancelling them in advance.