I’ve been watching, too, and haven’t seen any movement. I’m specifically watching STO since it’s high demand and no spots have been taken yet. I wish they’d get going.I haven't seen any of the sites disappear from the status, does anyone know if they have started to process applications? If they really have to go through over 10000 it will be a long wait until a likely rejection.
I kind of like that idea of refundable deposit once you use the permit.zozeppelin wrote: ↑Mon Mar 22, 2021 6:53 amThat is my speculation as well. I can understand an increase from Coronavirus effect (international travel and indoor activities mostly dead), but hard to imagine that is 3-4X. Glacier was the only national park that 'closed' last year I think. My father applied and received a Yellowstone permit no issue last year (pretty vacant he said).paul wrote: ↑Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:45 pmPeople are trying to game the system by submitting multiple applications when they will only use one. I'm inclined to think we should go back to the first come first served system rather than this lottery which creates incentives for this bad behavior.zozeppelin wrote: ↑Sun Mar 21, 2021 8:25 pm
3-4X? Seriously? I think they need to increase the non-refundable application fee at as deterrent for multiple submissions. Use that money to update the IT.
Link
My proposal wouldn't be to increase nominal cost of a typical applicant (apply for 1 permit and intend to use it), rather deter shotgun applications gaming the system by making it so costly that if they do indeed try that the park will at least be nicely compensated. This hopefully would be invested back into the backcountry. What I had in mind was a very high refundable deposit per application, refundable only upon issuance or initial permit denial. Say like $200 per application, if someone gets a permit and uses it, that is refunded once you pick up your permit the day of/before the hike. If someone wants to drop 10 applications and only arrive/use for one of them, so be it.
2020 is estimated from the 2019 number and the 'three to four times' statement from Mow in the link, so I just multiplied 2019 number by 3.5. 2018 is a same story (2019 link says 25% increase from 2018). I did calculations for both then and put them in italics (hard to see I admit). The 2019 number comes from Jason with 3300 after he called the backcountry office. Hopefully that makes sense.DawsonPass62 wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 3:36 pm ZoZeppelin,
I might be missing it, but the article link for the 11550 permit applications in 2019 appears to be the wrong link. Could you check that please?
Thanks.
I don't think anything has changed from earlier this month. I did a screen dump here on March 4th and just did another comparison and the only change was taking out LQU for another week and a single nights around BRO/BOU/BOW/KIN.sbosecker wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:50 pm I'm looking at the typical "bottleneck" campsites to see if any advance reservation sites have disappeared.
STO - nothing has disappeared
FIF - Aug 3 all sites have disappeared; Aug 5 & 30 one site has disappeared
ELF - Jul 5, 11, 14, 15 & 21 two sites have disappeared; Sep 12 all sites have disappeared
SPE - Aug 7, 23, 30 & Sep 7 all sites have disappeared
ELL - Aug 6, 12, 22, 26, 29 & Sep 8 all sites have disappeared
GRN - Aug 4 & 29 all sites have disappeared
BOU - Aug 2 & 17 all sites have disappeared; Aug 8 one site has disappeared
HOL - no sites have disappeared
COB - Aug 7, 9, 14, 19, 23 & Sep 11 all sites have disappeared
I'm wondering, based on the high number of dates that "all sites have disappeared, if these are "large groups" for the most part and they haven't really started on the individual advanced reservations quite yet.
Also I'm wondering if the fact that, again this year, the tour boat International from Waterton isn't running and entry into Canada isn't permitted (I think) might cut down on folks trying to advance reservations along the northern routes that might have ended at Goat Haunt.
Scott
I agree, keep in mind that was for last year. My gut feel is that this is beyond the realm of possibility and there is a mistake (i.e. comparing total permits issued including walkins to advanced permit applications the year prior). That said, look no further than gym equipment to see Covid mania in that timeframe, although the US lockdown didn't really hit home until after the application date (first stay at home order happened March 19 in California).DawsonPass62 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 24, 2021 6:24 am ZoZeppellin,
Thanks for the explanation, and yes it makes sense.
I'm still trying to digest that there are over 11,000 applications filed.
Thanks.
zoezeppelin,zozeppelin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 24, 2021 6:38 amI don't think anything has changed from earlier this month. I did a screen dump here on March 4th and just did another comparison and the only change was taking out LQU for another week and a single nights around BRO/BOU/BOW/KIN.sbosecker wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:50 pm I'm looking at the typical "bottleneck" campsites to see if any advance reservation sites have disappeared.
STO - nothing has disappeared
FIF - Aug 3 all sites have disappeared; Aug 5 & 30 one site has disappeared
ELF - Jul 5, 11, 14, 15 & 21 two sites have disappeared; Sep 12 all sites have disappeared
SPE - Aug 7, 23, 30 & Sep 7 all sites have disappeared
ELL - Aug 6, 12, 22, 26, 29 & Sep 8 all sites have disappeared
GRN - Aug 4 & 29 all sites have disappeared
BOU - Aug 2 & 17 all sites have disappeared; Aug 8 one site has disappeared
HOL - no sites have disappeared
COB - Aug 7, 9, 14, 19, 23 & Sep 11 all sites have disappeared
I'm wondering, based on the high number of dates that "all sites have disappeared, if these are "large groups" for the most part and they haven't really started on the individual advanced reservations quite yet.
Also I'm wondering if the fact that, again this year, the tour boat International from Waterton isn't running and entry into Canada isn't permitted (I think) might cut down on folks trying to advance reservations along the northern routes that might have ended at Goat Haunt.
Scott
Hi Scott,sbosecker wrote: ↑Wed Mar 24, 2021 9:22 amzoezeppelin,zozeppelin wrote: ↑Wed Mar 24, 2021 6:38 amI don't think anything has changed from earlier this month. I did a screen dump here on March 4th and just did another comparison and the only change was taking out LQU for another week and a single nights around BRO/BOU/BOW/KIN.sbosecker wrote: ↑Tue Mar 23, 2021 9:50 pm I'm looking at the typical "bottleneck" campsites to see if any advance reservation sites have disappeared.
STO - nothing has disappeared
FIF - Aug 3 all sites have disappeared; Aug 5 & 30 one site has disappeared
ELF - Jul 5, 11, 14, 15 & 21 two sites have disappeared; Sep 12 all sites have disappeared
SPE - Aug 7, 23, 30 & Sep 7 all sites have disappeared
ELL - Aug 6, 12, 22, 26, 29 & Sep 8 all sites have disappeared
GRN - Aug 4 & 29 all sites have disappeared
BOU - Aug 2 & 17 all sites have disappeared; Aug 8 one site has disappeared
HOL - no sites have disappeared
COB - Aug 7, 9, 14, 19, 23 & Sep 11 all sites have disappeared
I'm wondering, based on the high number of dates that "all sites have disappeared, if these are "large groups" for the most part and they haven't really started on the individual advanced reservations quite yet.
Also I'm wondering if the fact that, again this year, the tour boat International from Waterton isn't running and entry into Canada isn't permitted (I think) might cut down on folks trying to advance reservations along the northern routes that might have ended at Goat Haunt.
Scott
Interesting...
I was just comparing FIF in your Screen Dump to FIF on the Glacier Backcountry Reserved Availability Page and your dump and the web page are different by one day. For example, your dump is showing Aug 2nd having no advance reservations available while the web page is showing that same data on August 3rd.
How does one get a "Screen Dump" of all that information like you have?
Best regards,
Scott
I made it myself with a program I wrote. If there is interest, I can update pictures weekly like I did last year with the trail status. I have the desire to make a a website eventually (along with the availability tool /permit planner), but that may be closer to a pipe dream than reality.
I'm such a tech idiot, that didn't even occur to me.