Weather change this week

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Littlejohn Dsgn
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Re: Weather change this week

Post by Littlejohn Dsgn »

In Portland, OR I think we got the same weather as GNP, we have record rains and temps we tend to see in Feb not May :( Mt hood got 14 inches in 24 hours the other day.
Pocketlint

Re: Weather change this week

Post by Pocketlint »

Well...welcome to June weather in NW Montana...which happens to include Glacier National Park.
Absolutely GORGEOUS this past weekend...and now this.
The forecast I cut and pasted is an ugly one for the coming 24-48 hours.
As some here know, I helped nevagunamakit and her three friends with planning her backpack this week.
They got a terrific itinerary

In at Chief
COS
MOK
ELF (three nights!)
and out

I hope they got their sh1t together. Things could get right interesting in the Belly with that forecast.

It starting to look ugly outside now here in Whitefish... and to the East and the park.

pocketlint :wink:

000
FXUS65 KMSO 182015
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
215 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2013

.DISCUSSION...An active weather scenario is setting up for the
next 24-48 hours as a low pressure system begins to approach and move
through western Montana and north central Idaho. Below are listed
the main impacts with this system:

***Strong Thunderstorms***: Thunderstorms are already beginning to
form this afternoon under good surface heating and lots of energy
and moisture aloft, a favorable pattern for strong to severe
thunderstorms exists. The storms are expected to come in two main waves.
The first wave is expected to form across southwest Montana this
afternoon and move northward into west central and northwest
Montana (generally east of a line from Hamilton to Missoula to
Kalispell) this afternoon and evening. A second wave of
thunderstorms will develop tonight over north central Idaho and
move into northwest Montana (generally west of a line from Lost
Trail Pass to Lowell to Plains to Eureka) overnight.
Thunderstorms will have the potential to produce very heavy rain
(which could affect flood prone basins and recent burn areas in
Idaho county), hail potentially over 1 inch in diameter and
strong winds greater than 50 mph. Those with outdoor activities
today and tonight should keep an eye to the sky.

***Heavy rain***: As the upper low pressure system moves into the
region tonight and Wednesday, a scenario for very heavy rain is
developing. The heaviest rain is expected across the Clearwater
mountains into the Idaho panhandle and across northwest Montana.
1" to 2" of rain are possible in these areas tonight through
Wednesday night. River and stream levels will likely rise
although flooding is not anticipated at this time. There could be
localized issues with ponding of water on roadways in urban
areas. Elsewhere, most all of the region should see a wetting
rain however amounts will be lower as you head into southwest
Montana and Lemhi County. Another wave of moisture and energy
associated with the upper low pressure system will impact
northern Idaho and western Montana Wednesday afternoon. This
could mean an additional 0.25 to 0.75 inch of rain, with the
higher amounts in the higher terrain of northwest Montana.

***High terrain and mountain pass snow***: As the upper low
pressure system approaches late Wednesday, much cooler air will
rush into northern Idaho and western Montana. Snow levels should
be between 6000 to 7000 feet with some slushy snow/road impacts
possible over higher mountain passes such as Lost Trail Pass by
Thursday morning. However, by the time the cooler air arrives,
the heaviest precipitation should shift north into Canada and
well east of the Divide. The upper low pressure system will
continue to direct surges of moisture and a very cool air mass
over the northern Rockies Friday and Saturday. Higher terrain
areas should continue to see some additional snow.

In the longer term, the very cool and moist low pressure system
should exit to the east late Saturday. However, it appears a moist
westerly flow may set up over the northern Rockies late Sunday,
Monday and Tuesday with additional showers.
Pocketlint

Re: Weather change this week

Post by Pocketlint »

Outside about 1830MT
Ugly Radar pic now and thunder. at about 1930
Looking Roughly East
Image

Looking roughly ENE
Image

Looking north towards Big Mountain
Image
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Snogger
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Re: Weather change this week

Post by Snogger »

Just saw this WebCam shot from Apgar this morning.. Looks like a lot of leaves and even some branches down :shock:

Image
Live by the Motto: Life is too important to be taken seriously!

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Pocketlint

Re: Weather change this week

Post by Pocketlint »

Hey Snogger!

Keep your fingers crossed. It looks to be clearing out somewhat by the weekend.
Maybe we'll get a decent moonrise yet.

The forecast this morning is below. Possible snow at Logan Pass :shock:
Which really is not too shocking since June snow is not all that unusual up there.

pocketlint :wink:

000
FXUS65 KMSO 190923
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
323 AM MDT Wed Jun 19 2013

...MOUNTAIN SNOW TO IMPACT MARIAS, LOGAN, LOST TRAIL PASSES
THURSDAY MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...The upper low pressure system will slowly enter the
region today, setting up for a very wet and cool day. Heavy rain
has already been falling in the Clearwater Mountains overnight and
this morning, and is expected to continue through most of the day.
This region and the Idaho Panhandle, including northwestern
Montana will likely to pick up the heaviest rain today, with 1" to
2" inches possible. Heavy rain will likely cause local streams and
rivers to rise, however flooding is not anticipated at this time.
Elsewhere in western Montana, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop ahead of the main shield of precipitation this
afternoon. These storms are not expected to be as strong as we saw
yesterday, though they could produce very heavy rain, gusty winds,
and small hail. Later this afternoon and evening, heavy rain is
expected to finally make in and around the Glacier National Park
area. An additional 1.00" to 1.50" inches of rain is possible, and
with already saturated ground, runoff from the rain could
potential cause small rock and mudslides. Keep apprised to any
changes to the forecast, and those spending anytime outdoors today
should keep an eye to the sky.

Wednesday night into Thursday morning snow levels will fall to
around 6000 feet as the coldest part the upper level low moves
east across the northern Rockies. The heaviest precipitation will
be on the leading edge of the system, and should fall as rain.
However, snow is expected to affect Logan Pass and Glacier
National Park Thursday morning, and higher elevations in the park
throughout the day. Marias and Lost Trail passes will also be
affected by light snow accumulations Thursday morning around 1 to
2 inches. Accumulation on roadways is possible, so early morning
travelers should be prepared for winter driving conditions over
the passes.

Friday and Saturday will remain cool and showery as the system
slowly progresses east. Sunday afternoon into have the potential
to be nice with a weak ridge building ahead of the next system.
However, moist southwest flow from a digging trough off the
Washington coast may also cause thunderstorms. Generally, the
unsettled weather will continue well into next week.

&&
Littlejohn Dsgn
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Re: Weather change this week

Post by Littlejohn Dsgn »

Looking at the 10 day forcast for West Glacier, looks like we might get lucky, the weather looks to be calming down for the weekend before the 4th :)

Picked up a couple new tarps and rope anyways ..... Just in case. If I did not pack it, it would rain for sure :mrgreen:
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Re: Weather change this week

Post by teapot57 »

I hope nevagunamakit & company are doing alright out there. Keep us posted if you hear from them.
scott-atl
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Re: Weather change this week

Post by scott-atl »

rain is a good thing for this park. we had some rain when we were there last week but no big deal. i hope the thunderstorms are not too bad for the hikers.
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Snogger
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Re: Weather change this week

Post by Snogger »

Thanks Pocket.. I've been checking Accuweather.com and weather.com daily to see the weather patterns.... .. oh, who am I kidding.. Hourly!! :P

Currently ( fingers crossed, knock on wood, etc.. ) it looks like mid 70's during the day and mainly sunny. :D
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Stmarypete
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Re: Weather change this week

Post by Stmarypete »

The weather in Idaho is getting really crappy and cold for tonight and heading over to Montana. Any chance of a road closing snow storm for Logan pass tonight? If so I would consider driving over to St Mary and skiing or hiking up the East side to the pass, that has always been one of my bucket list items, but I expected to do it in the Fall.
Pocketlint

Re: Weather change this week

Post by Pocketlint »

They might get some snow up there...forecast is for maybe some over 6000ft

Gonna be nasty for a while yet :(

pocketlint :wink:

000
FXUS65 KMSO 192044
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
244 PM MDT Wed Jun 19 2013

...SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...
...LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION ABOVE 6000 FEET TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...A low pressure system currently located in central
Washington and Oregon will continue to slowly move eastward into
western Montana and north central Idaho tonight. This feature has
abundant moisture and energy associated with it which will lead to
an active period for the next 24-36 hours. Below is a summary of
the main impacts:

Thunderstorms: General thunderstorms are expected this afternoon
and evening across western Montana. A few storms could briefly
become strong this afternoon, mainly across southwest Montana and
along the Continental Divide through Powell County. While the
stronger storms should be fairly isolated and short lived, a few
could produce gusty winds, small hail and very heavy rain.

Heavy rain: Moderate to heavy rain will continue this afternoon
and overnight. The heaviest amounts are expected through north
central Idaho up into northwest Montana. Some locations along the
Idaho/Montana border have already received up to an inch of rain
fall, with another 0.50-1.00 inch of rain possible by the end of
Thursday. Flooding is not expected to be an overall issue although
small streams and rivers will likely begin to rise. Additionally,
some ponding of water on the roadways and in urban areas is possible.

Snow: Snow levels are expected to drop by Thursday morning to
about 6000 feet. This will allow for some accumulating snow in the
higher terrain as well as high elevation passes, such as Lost
Trail. Those planning to be in the high backcountry should be
prepared for wet, raw weather conditions.

The upper level low pressure system will slowly move through
the region, continuing a wet and cool pattern through Saturday.

A brief break in precipitation is expected Saturday evening into
Sunday morning as a ridge of high pressure builds into the region.
This will be short lived however as the ridge quickly moves
eastward leaving western Montana and north central Idaho in a
moist southwest flow through mid week. Although temperatures will
warm back towards normal, showers and thunderstorms will continue
to be a possibility.
Stmarypete
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Re: Weather change this week

Post by Stmarypete »

I have been there before when snow closed the road, but never had my skiis or the time to go up to the pass. I really think it would be pretty incredible to ski the GTTSR with 6 inches of new snow and no one around.
Pocketlint

Re: Weather change this week

Post by Pocketlint »

The forecast still sucks...Snow in the BC?




000
FXUS65 KMSO 200917
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
317 AM MDT Thu Jun 20 2013

...MOUNTAIN SNOW TO IMPACT LOGAN, LOST TRAIL PASSES THIS MORNING...

.DISCUSSION...The coldest part of this system is moving through
the northern Rockies today. Snow levels will lower to around 6000
feet across much of the region allowing for snow at Marias, Logan,
and Lost Trail passes. Maximum accumulation is expected to be 1 to
2 inches at pass level. The back country, especially in Glacier
National Park may receive 3 to 4 inches. Expect snow levels to
remain low in Glacier Park and even decrease during the day.
Friday and Saturday will each be warmer, but still seasonably cool
and wet as this system slowly progresses northeast.

There is agreement between model guidance that Sunday will start out
at as a really nice summer day. High pressure will briefly pass
through the region bringing high temperatures back to normal and
very limited chances for showers early in the day. The nice weather
may last through Monday afternoon but there is uncertainty as to
whether shower and thunderstorms will return through the evening
or hold off until Monday.

A moist southwesterly flow will bring showers and thunderstorms
from Monday on through the middle of next week and below average
temperatures will also start off the week. There are indications
that warmer and drier conditions will arrive for the second half
of the week.


&&

.AVIATION...A slow moving upper level low continues to meander
across the northern Rockies today causing persistent mountain
obscurations and low ceilings. Terminals KMSO and KGPI will be
most affected by rain showers and lower ceilings. Conditions will
improve this afternoon for KMSO, KBTM, and KSMN as overcast skies
become broken and the widespread rain transitions to showers in
northwest flow.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES..
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distressbark
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Re: Weather change this week

Post by distressbark »

Last night I experienced the most ferocious storm I've ever seen in my four years working and living in Many Glacier. It was hailing sideways for a bit, with torrential rains and ferocious winds. The south slope of Altyn Peak was littered with dozens of newly formed cascades from all the rain water. The snowfield locally known as South America is stained brown with mud, and last night the seasonal drainage beneath the snow was filled with brown tumbling cascades. A huge runoff pile formed in the westbound lane of the Many Glacier Road just past the turnoff for the hotel, but it looks as though it has been cleared as of this afternoon. Swiftcurrent Lake and Lake Sherburne are very brown today, and that lake level rose a couple of feet over night! The outlet of Swiftcurrent Creek is running dangerously high, and if it rises much more there's talk of evacuating Many Glacier Hotel. Absolutely incredible stuff. New snow visible at around 8,000 feet this morning. East side forecast calls for more wet weather today, but it looks like the really nasty stuff has blown through.
- anders


"And what do the birds say? All there is to say about a massacre, things like Poo-tee-weet?"
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Pocketlint

Re: Weather change this week

Post by Pocketlint »

Oh Boy.

I bet Nevagunamakit and her friends will have one hell of a TR after the last few nights at MOK and ELF with tonight and tomorrow night to go at ELF.

pocketlint :wink:
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